Prediction in Fiction
I have a confession - I recently went on an enormous science fiction binge. I discovered a list of top-rated science fiction books, picked one at random, and dove in. And then I read another. And another. While it was likely selection bias, a remarkable pattern of reflection emerged:
“Wow, this <X fictional technology> is written as if it’s “out there” or far-fetched, but seems a lot like <Y real technology> that we have now”
“Broader issues around <X fictional technology> feel a lot like real issues surrounding <Y real technology>. That’s worrisome.”
Notices that issues surrounding <X fictional technology> lead to dystopia/catastrophe/ruin for the world and/or the central characters
“I wonder where on the <X fictional technology> timeline we are with respect to <Y real technology>”... existential dread creeps in…
“This must have been written in the 1990s or 2000s to be so prophetic. Checks publishing date to realize it was written in the 1940s. “How is that possible?”
I’m astonished by the foresight of these writers. Great sci-fi writers and today’s visionary innovators seem to share a lot in common, largely anchored in creative extrapolation. They ask, “Hey, what if this were completely different?” and are then willing to pull on that thread until something breaks (for better or worse).
One story, in particular, really hit home. Clifford Simak released 9 short stories in the 1940s that have been published more recently and combined into a single novel called “City”. The first of this series really got me thinking about where and why we live where we do. In this story, cities (though portrayed more as suburbs) have declined and only a few decaying homes are occupied, generally by older, out of touch denizens clinging to “the good old days”. Everyone else has fled these cluttered, overpriced cities to the country based on a number of technological advancements that have given them new freedoms:
Hydroponic farming methods allow humans to produce their food locally, eliminating the need for both farm land, as well as the need to be proximate to supply chain hubs;
Commercial scale modular housing allows everyone to afford high quality, highly customized homes wherever they want for very low cost;
Modular nuclear reactors have led to endless localized power production, reducing the need to be on an electrical grid;
Cars gained the ability to fly like helicopters, allowing for easy commutes into urban business centers when needed;
AI-controlled robots handle common household tasks (more Roomba than android) with verbal prompts
Pick up any tech periodical or blog from the last 6 months and at least one of these concepts is almost guaranteed to have been featured. To write about this 80 years ago is mindblowing. Let’s quickly go through that list:
Hydroponics and modular construction have been around for decades, but are now beginning to flirt with mainstream adoption
Advancements in small modular nuclear reactors may change the entire energy complex and are expected to be deployed at scale at some point before 2030
Flying cars aren’t exactly “in market” yet, but companies like Joby and Archer are already publicly traded and the promise of autonomous driving has made the idea of longer commutes much more palpable
Robots and AI are of course all the rage (drone delivery, vacuums, deck maintenance), but the form factor described (basically a smarter Roomba lawnmower akin to Husqvarnas robo-mowers) is strikingly spot on with the state of commercialized robotics today
The point is, we’re on the cusp of embracing the same technologies as the folks in the story. And what is happening? Well, similar social changes are afoot. Tons of people moved away from over-priced housing markets in and around urban centers throughout the COVID pandemic. Hybrid work has enabled this transition (somehow missed by Cliff’s prognostication), but the crushing high costs of housing and limited supply have also pushed people into secondary housing markets.
“Years that had brought cheap land with the disappearance of the farm as an economic unit, had sent city people scurrying out into the country where each man, for less than the price of a city lot, might own broad acres. Years had revolutionized the construction of homes to a point where families simply walked away from their old homes to the new ones that could be bought, custom-made, for less than half the price of a prewar structure and could be changed at small cost, to accommodate need of additional space or just a passing whim.
Gramp sniffed. “Houses that could be changed each year, like one would shift around the furniture. What kind of thing was that?”
The story goes on to embrace several questions that the real estate space is wrestling with today:
What do we do with all of this unused space and unused real estate that has no value to the customers it was originally designed for?
What happens to the people, careers, markets, and resources that new tech displaces?
How does a governance system respond when it can’t operate at a taxation level that provides it with sufficient revenue?
What can we do to keep people in cities happy and healthy, and provide more incentives to stay?
Admittedly, it does paint a pretty grim forecast for the downfall of cities. Farfetched? Of course, but should cities begin to shrink, the problems that are faced (covered in this interesting piece by Economics Explained) are very real, and are playing out even in major wealthy cities like - dare we say - San Francisco. It’s important to occasionally step back and think about these big questions. Clifford Simak certainly did.
"The city is an anachronism. It has outlived its usefulness. Hydroponics and the helicopter spelled its downfall. In the first instance the city was a tribal place, an area where the tribe banded together for mutual protection. In later years a wall was thrown around it for additional protection. Then the wall finally disappeared but the city lived on because of the conveniences which it offered trade and commerce. It continued into modern times because people were compelled to live close to their jobs and the jobs were in the city.
"But today that is no longer true. With the family plane, one hundred miles today is a shorter distance than five miles back in 1930. Men can fly several hundred miles to work and fly home when the day is done. There is no longer any need for them to live cooped up in a city.
"The automobile started the trend and the family plane finished it. Even in the first part of the century the trend was noticeable—a movement away from the city with its taxes, its stuffiness, a move towards the suburb and close-in acreages. Lack of adequate transportation, lack of finances held many to the city. But now, with tank farming destroying the value of land, a man can buy a huge acreage in the country for less than he could a city lot forty years ago."
"So what have we?" asked Webster. "I'll tell you what we have. Street after street, block after block, of deserted houses, houses that the people just up and walked away from. Why should they have stayed? What could the city offer them? None of the things that it offered the generations before them, for progress has wiped out the need of the city's benefits. They lost something, some monetary consideration, of course, when they left the houses. But the fact that they could buy a house twice as good for half as much, the fact that they could live as they wished to live, that they could develop what amounts to family estates after the best tradition set them by the wealthy of a generation ago—all these things outweighed the leaving of their homes.
"And what have we left? A few blocks of business houses. A few acres of industrial plants. A city government geared to take care of a million people without the million people. A budget that has run the taxes so high that eventually even business houses will move to escape those taxes. Tax forfeitures that have left us loaded with worthless property. That's what we have left.”
How far are we truly away from the above given remote work, Starlink and 5G, solar panels, modular reactors, autonomous vehicles, and drone delivery?
The literature of the past has undoubtedly been vital in informing the technology of today but the problems and pains that existed back then still exist today. This type of science fiction serves as exciting inspiration for reimagining how and where we live. We need to keep building happy, healthy homes and cities or people, who now have options, will build happy, healthy homes elsewhere.